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What does the future hold for DVC?

Discussion in 'DVC Mousecellaneous' started by DVC Mike, Aug 19, 2016.

  1. DVC Mike

    DVC Mike Founder

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    the-future.jpg

    I asked this question about a year ago, so it's time for a follow up. Back then, speaking in terms of Walt Disney World, I summarized the probable options for DVC expansion as:

    • Wilderness Lodge expansion
    • Yacht & Beach Club - Disney is less likely to convert the Yacht club side due to the thriving convention business they get, so it's more likely they may convert some BC rooms to DVC.
    • Fort Wilderness - Leaked plans show DVC has considered this option
    • Caribbean Beach Resort - Rumors have said part of this resort may be converted to DVC
    • Coronado Springs Resort - Same rumors here
    • DVC near DHS (Star Wars Themed?) - This rumor is that DVC might construct a new DVC near DHS, along with plans to build a Star Wars and Toy Story lands.
    • Second BLT Tower?

    The first one has been formally announced (Copper Creek Cabins & Villas at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge), and the rumors are swirling that the next DVC will be at the Caribbean Beach Resort, followed by a second BLT tower.

    What do you think will follow at WDW? It's obvious that a DVC expansion will eventually take place at Disneyland, but probably not for a few more years.

    Florida-Project.jpg
     
  2. Russ

    Russ Staff Member Site Owner

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    A YC expansion could be in the cards as well if the planned YC convention center expansion is to make room for DVC. Getting in the ballpark on 4 out of 7 rumors, 1 of which has actually occurred (VWL expansion) and one of which the existence of plans has been publically and privately confirmed (Caribbean Beach) is pretty darn good :notw: :notw: :notw:.
    So, what does your crystal ball show us for this next year :pixiedust:?
     
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  3. Lori L

    Lori L Staff Member Administrator

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    Something at Fort Wilderness sometime?
     
  4. peabody58

    peabody58 Well-Known Member

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    I'm predicting....... a dues increase!
     
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  5. Bobby

    Bobby Staff Member Moderator

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    Ding! Ding! Ding!
     
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  6. 999ghosts

    999ghosts Well-Known Member

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    If they add Star Wars themed DVC then I'll ask for my paycheck to be send to Disney automatically!
     
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  7. AnnaS

    AnnaS Master Member

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    As long as they keep selling out, they will keep building. I can see renovating/converting existing buildings but wondering if they should stop building new ones. It's not going to be Disney World anymore (referring to the parks which is why many people go there in the first place), it's going to be Disney Resorts. Unless they expand/add to the existing parks - if the DVC and Disney resorts sell out, where are all these people going to be? I must be missing something :cool:
     
  8. Bobby

    Bobby Staff Member Moderator

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    That's a pretty big leap. I wouldn't worry too much about that one. I wouldn't say that about many things in this world but I have a high degree of confidence in that one. Besides, there would never be a sellout anyway. Nobody could afford it. If anything catastrophic happened, it would all just close. If that happens, I suspect we'll all be more worried about other things and DVC will be the last thing on our minds. ;)
     
  9. AnnaS

    AnnaS Master Member

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    During busy times, if resorts and DVC resorts are at full capacity - I am thinking MK will be packed (maybe one or two of the other ones?), longer wait times, monorails packed, etc. Even Disney Springs, there are times when people are like sardines. But true, by the time this happens, if it does, it does not matter anyway - not that it does too much now - just wondering.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  10. Babbott

    Babbott Well-Known Member

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    My guess for next future DVC is new complex next to DHS as a joint effort to park expansion. Looking at Google maps there seems to be enough land to do so. It would seem a good paring for a DHS near park accommodations.

    This would also help manage park density. Agree with AnnaS, if not managed properly( and without using above inflation price increases) park densities could lead to less attendance and competition gains. This, in turn, could significantly Impact further DVC sales.
     
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  11. Bobby

    Bobby Staff Member Moderator

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    Bingo, Babbot.
     
  12. Tipscarl

    Tipscarl Active Member

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    Right there with you on this one.
     
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  13. Frank

    Frank Staff Member Moderator

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    I'm too lazy to to this (or to see if anyone else has...) but a good poll for someone to post is something along the lines of "which potentially new - but unannounced - DVC property would you buy into?".

    Personally, the only thing that piques my interest would be a YCV (Yacht Club Villas). I'd love to have that with an 11 month window and a 2068 expiration....I would be past 100 years of age when that party is over.
     
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  14. GeeWhiz

    GeeWhiz Active Member

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    Just to add the West Coast point of view...

    Another Disney Hotel was approved in Anaheim earlier this year. You can probably bet that there will be a DVC presence there.
     
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  15. Frank

    Frank Staff Member Moderator

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    What do you think it will be? Will they take one of the three DL towers and convert them? If they do, which one?
     
  16. GeeWhiz

    GeeWhiz Active Member

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    I have no inside info, so I'm just speculating.

    The VGC is the smallest of the DVC resorts. The local government has some pretty heavy limits on developing more hotels in that area. They approved a new hotel to be built by Disney (in part because Disney committed to make huge investments in the area). So it seems to make sense that Disney would expand DVC in the Disneyland Resorts area.

    I had not considered that they might take over or convert one of the existing towers of the Disneyland Hotel. That is a possibility. They could also convert Paradise Pier, which is the most "remote" of the hotels. What I was thinking is that they would make it part of the new hotel based on the marketing. Being part of the new structure would probably have a higher value than using the old buildings.
     
  17. MMDVC

    MMDVC Active Member

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    DVC definitely needs to expand at DL. It amazes me that the direct owners are not upset about availability and booking problems. Rarely hear any comments online about angered "owners". Must be just me getting tired of using my WL points at the Paradise Pier or DLand Hotel. Talk about point shock! Anyway on my final day I remembered to ask about the "category" for the top floor of the Frontier Tower at the DLH. It was formerly called Bonita Tower and it is the only rooms still with the balcony. They told me I could request standard view balcony when I checked in but the pool view or resort view is cash reservations only.
    Anyway I think this is the tower that would be easiest to convert to DVC because it is usually not the desired location. And Disney likes to give DVC the problem rooms (aka the ones you hope you don't get). I love Paradise Pier but can't imagine the DVC taking over the entire hotel or even just a few floors. I guess time will tell... I just hope they expand DVC in California.
     
  18. Merida

    Merida Veteran Member

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    Who is Wdw targeting to buy all these new DVC resorts directly? The price per point is high. Dues will also be high. The new resorts are pint hogs . Who is rich enough to buy DVC direct now? I suspect they are targeting overseas buyers .

    The other buyers may be buying smaller contracts and staying at older resorts to stretch points.
     
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  19. Russ

    Russ Staff Member Site Owner

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    As long as people are still willing to keep paying more and more for lodging, dining, and park admission, they will keep being willing to pay for discounted lodging, dining, and APs which is what DVC provides. In addition, DVC insulates you from future price increases, given DVC MFs have historically only increased 1% annually when adjusted for inflation (whereas hotels have increased more than that presumably). There's also all of us with add-on-itis, which I must admit I'm in the "program" for (aka DVCinfo) :p
     
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  20. spiceycat

    spiceycat Well-Known Member

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    the fees that I have been charge have gone up more than 1% - so what are you comparing?
     
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  21. Granny

    Granny Elite Member

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    Hard to predict the next DVC project after CCV. I remember the speculation about DVC building at GF and Polynesian for years and it was always pooh-poohed as not having the room, etc.

    I tend to think that Disney really likes the idea of taking a current resort (with no DVC) that has low occupancy rates and converting a portion to DVC. It allows them to make the existing resort more profitable as DVC members kick in for the common expenses which really don't go up much. So I think something like the Caribbean Beach DVC project makes sense. I don't know what the occupancy rates are of the various WDW resorts but I think that would provide a list of potential new DVC conversions. I think DVC also likes the idea of not only converting existing resort rooms but adding new features like the bungalows at PBV, cabins at CCV and TOTW lounge at BLT.

    It would seem that the existing resort conversion/addition would be the most profitable for Disney vs a stand alone DVC resort. And every resort has a built in demand as there are fans of virtually every WDW resort that could become members.

    The hardest part is to come up with resort concepts that will justify the current astronomical prices and point schedules. I don't see Disney ever going backwards in pricing so the point schedules remain their only flexibility in driving demand for a new resort. It will be interesting, to be sure.
     
  22. Bobby

    Bobby Staff Member Moderator

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    I'm not sure I can find an example right now, but I have found it interesting that on a couple of different sites lately, I have seen properties separated by Value, Moderate, Deluxe and DVC. You used to see DVC just bundled up with the Deluxe moniker since (to this point) it has always been part of those types of hotels. It makes me wonder which of two directions separating DVC into its own "category" might be taking it.
     
  23. Russ

    Russ Staff Member Site Owner

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    Average since 1992 across all resort:
    DVC Infl. Adj. Historical MFs:
    upload_2016-8-24_22-1-12.png
     
  24. spiceycat

    spiceycat Well-Known Member

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    know your numbers are wrong on okw/dvc - there were times it went up 8% - will look and get back to you - if I can find it.

    vb definitely went up as much as 8% too

    both of these were in one year (think in the 90's)
     
  25. DVC Mike

    DVC Mike Founder

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    The numbers are here (not adjusted for inflation):

    Historical Annual Dues - DVCinfo.com
     

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